Supply shortages are easing in the US and worsening in Europe
Supply shortages, which had driven inflation to multi-decade highs, are showing some signs of easing in the US, but conditions are still deteriorating in Europe.
That is according to the latest set of supply indicators from Bloomberg Economics. The US measure fell in October but remained at historically high levels, suggesting shortages are becoming less acute.
If that trend continues into 2022, the impact on U.S. consumers should start to fade. That would at least make life easier for Jerome Powell, the newly re-elected fed chairman. Mr. Powell is under pressure to tighten monetary policy as prices soar.
The improvement in U.S. supply shortages supports President Joe Biden view that bottlenecks are easing after his administration began smooth operations at West Coast ports. His approval ratings have dropped recently amid economic concerns such as inflation, with only 43 percent of voters approving of his job performance, according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis of polls.
"More and more goods are moving faster and cheaper from our ports to your doorsteps and onto store shelves," Biden said Tuesday. Major retailers like Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Target Corp., and Home Depot Inc. "have confirmed that their shelves will be well-stocked in stores this holiday season," he said.
Both the US supply measure and Bloomberg Economics\' comparable measures for the eurozone and THE UK draw on a range of data from factory gate prices to inventories and order backlogs. As in past months, positive data point to constraints, while negative data -- such as the early months of the coronavirus outbreak -- imply a relative abundance of goods.
Us data show supply shortages peaked in the summer and have been trending slightly lower since then. That was helped by backlogs of orders and lower prices at manufacturers, both of which edged down from their summer highs. So do the prices of industrial materials and retailers\' order-to-stock ratios.
Not all components of the index are improving. Supply constraints in the service sector continue to worsen and Labour shortages show no sign of abating. U.S. inflation, currently at 6.2%, is expected to climb in the coming months. One concern for the Fed is whether temporary drivers of higher prices associated with tighter supply will give way to more durable drivers as wages rise.
In the eurozone, indicators from Bloomberg Economics suggest conditions are still deteriorating. Supply shortages pushed eurozone inflation to 4.1 percent in October, its highest level in two decades.
Inflation hawks at the European Central Bank are breathing a sigh of relief: the pace of deterioration appears to be slowing.
Still, the ratio of orders to inventories at European factories and shops continues to rise. In Germany, the continent economic powerhouse, the number of vacancies per job seeker is also rising -- a labor shortage that could start to push wages higher.
It was a similar story in the UK, where the PMI hit a new high in October.
Measures of producer prices, inventory levels and Labour market conditions all suggest shortages are getting worse. The impact of the rapid reopening of the coronavirus lockdown is a global phenomenon, exacerbated by one unique to the UK: the trade frictions that followed Britain exit from the EU.
With UK inflation at 4.2 percent, the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates sooner than its fed and ECB counterparts. Yet all these central banks face similar risks. Higher interest rates, which curb demand rather than increase supply, could end up stifling recovery and inflation.
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